Validating suffering dating relationships
Like with most ideas, there's a lot of fantasy and exaggeration associated with "the singularity," but at least the core idea that technology will progress at an accelerating rate for some time to come, absent major setbacks, is not particularly controversial.
Exponential growth is the standard model in economics, and while this can't continue forever, it has been a robust pattern throughout human and even pre-human history.
This led me to be confused about what "free will" meant until mid-2008 and about what "consciousness" meant until late 2009.
Cognitive science showed me that the brain was in fact very much like a computer, at least in the sense of being a deterministic information-processing device with distinct algorithms and modules.
"This isn't intelligence; it's just people using computers to manipulate data and perform optimization, and they dress it up as 'AI' to make it sound sexy." Machine learning in particular seemed to be just a computer scientist's version of statistics.
Neural networks were just an elaborated form of logistic regression.
I am not an expert on all the arguments in this field, and my views remain very open to change with new information.
2018 Artificial intelligence (AI) will transform the world later this century.
I expect this transition will be a "soft takeoff" in which many sectors of society update together in response to incremental AI developments, though the possibility of a harder takeoff in which a single AI project "goes foom" shouldn't be ruled out.
When viewed up close, these algorithms could look as "dumb" as the kinds of algorithms in narrow AI that I had previously dismissed as "not really intelligence." Of course, animal brains combine these seemingly dumb subcomponents in dazzlingly complex and robust ways, but I could now see that the difference between narrow AI and brains was a matter of degree rather than kind.
It now seemed plausible that broad AI could emerge from lots of work on narrow AI combined with stitching the parts together in the right ways.